A new study says the federal government’s total policy response to the Great Recession “probably averted what could have been called Great Depression 2.0.” The report, titled "How the Great Recession was Brought to an End," paints a grim picture of what the country would look like today if the government had not taken the actions that it did. "The U.S. government’s response to the financial crisis and ensuing Great Recession included some of the most aggressive fiscal and monetary policies in history," the study states. "The response was multifaceted and bipartisan, involving the Federal Reserve, Congress, and two administrations. Yet almost every one of these policy initiatives remain controversial to this day, with critics calling them misguided, ineffective or both."
According to the study: - America would have lost “16.6 million jobs … about twice as many as were actually lost.”
- The “unemployment rate would have peaked at 16.5 percent.”
- “The peak-to-trough decline in [Gross Domestic Product] is … close to 12 percent, compared to an actual decline of about 4 percent.”
- The federal budget deficit [would have surged] to over $2 trillion in fiscal year 2010, $2.6 trillion in fiscal year 2011, and $2.25 trillion in fiscal year 2012.”
"The financial policy responses were especially important," the study found. "In the scenario without them, but including the fiscal stimulus, the recession would only now be winding down, a full year after the downturn’s actual end." The study was conducted by Alan Blinder, a Princeton professor and former vice chairman of the Fed, and Mark Zandi, chief economist at Moody’s Analytics. The New York Times calls the study “a first stab at comprehensively estimating the effects of the economic policy responses of the last few years.” To read the study in its entirety, please click here.
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