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Stories in this Issue:
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Chamber's 'State of the City' features noted economist
Predicting the future can be a thankless job. Just ask weather forecasters. Get it right, and there’s a collective ho-hum.
Make the wrong call, though, and everyone’s an expert.
So it goes with forecasting the economy, especially in a volatile environment. Economists with solid track records earn their stripes during turbulent times.
Dr. Mark Schniepp, who will be the keynote speaker at the Chamber’s upcoming State of the City’s Economy luncheon, comes to San Luis Obispo with the background and credentials to provide a clear-eyed analysis of trends impacting the city’s economic future.
The State of the City’s Economy event is set for noon on May 30 at Grace Church.
Schniepp, currently director of the California Economic Forecast, contributes to the respected annual UCLA Anderson Forecast and is the senior consulting economist to Caltrans, building forecasting models for each of the state’s 58 counties. He also served from 1999 to 2003 as senior economist with the state controller’s office. Schniepp directed the UCSB Economic Forecast Project from 1982 until 2000.
In a recent interview, Schniepp said whether or not the economy currently fits the textbook definition of a recession, it remains in the throes of a slowdown. But while some economists predict the nation’s housing woes won’t recover for two or three years, Schniepp disagrees.
“We don’t think the housing fallout is going to be as severe as some other economists do,” he said. Schniepp, who publishes a semi-annual real estate and economic forecast for Santa Barbara County, said he believes housing values in California’s coastal areas are stabilizing.
Schniepp is quite familiar with San Luis Obispo County’s economy, having prepared both long- and short-term forecasts in previous years. He also served as the principal investigator and author of a 1996 study analyzing the economic role tourism plays in the county. He also produced a 1998 report examining the overall impact the Performing Arts Center had on the city’s economy.
Forecasting economic trends for a city like San Luis Obispo is somewhat trickier than producing a regional or statewide forecast, said Schniepp. If a large company closes in small city, for example, it registers only a blip on a regional economy, but produces shockwaves within the city.
“You really have to look at things a lot closer.” |
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Sacramento trip provides inside look
 A contingent of San Luis Obispo business leaders and public officials embark later this month on a Chamber-sponsored trip to Sacramento for two days of meetings at the Capitol.
Gov. Schwarzenegger, who was in San Luis Obispo in late March stumping for his proposed budget reforms, is scheduled to deliver the keynote address at a breakfast meeting on the second day.
The first day of the trip features the California Business Legislative Summit with guest speaker George Stephanopoulos, who served in former President Bill Clinton’s administration as senior advisor for policy and strategy.
With a severe state budget shortfall threatening to result in cuts affecting everything from the city’s infrastructure to its schools and the operation of local state parks, the Sacramento trip comes at a crucial time.
“Face-to-face meetings with elected representatives and other officials are a critical advocacy tool,” said Ermina Karim, the Chamber’s Director of Governmental Affairs. “It’s especially important to cultivate those types of relationships at a time when decisions directly impacting our small businesses and local area are being made.”
Small business owners who have made the trip in the past say it provides a fresh perspective about the Capitol’s inner workings.
“Our group had many different opportunities to see legislators and lobbyists in their busy daily schedules,” said Tim Williams, who owns Digital West and who traveled last year to Sacramento. Williams, the Chamber’s Legislative Vice-Chair, said each meeting he attended “created more of a buzz and kept us excited for the next.”
“The rides there and back were great bookends of conversation with our own city leaders and the contrast gave us perspective on how much our participation matters locally, as well as all the way to the capital.”
Tom Lebens, another member of the Board who made the 2007 trip, plans to go again this year.
“It’s a great opportunity to learn from insiders in the state capital about issues that affect us, as business owners, leaders and residents of San Luis Obispo.”
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